Revolution in Egypt: Why not sooner?

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2008, 2009 and 2010 were bad years for ordinary Egyptians. In 2008 food inflation was 22%; in 2009 , 21%.  In 2010, the year before Egypt's revolution, vegetable prices went up 70%, meat and poultry 25%.

The troubles piled on over-stressed foundation. For almost twenty years, Egypt's government had been "privatizing." People at the high end of the economy did better and better;  the poor struggled ever more: collective layoffs, loss of subsidies and rising unemployment. In other words, no trickle down.

Meanwhile the schools were useless, roads  clogged, sanitation patchy, housing completely inadequate, and the government had a tight, often violent, squeeze on the political process.

No one seemed able to explain why the people didn't rebel.

After every slap in the collective face of the people, academics, journalists, artists and other troublesome types announced that the revolution was gonna be here, now. But in spite of louder and louder rumbles coming out of the belly of the body politic, the revolution didn't come.



What held the Egyptians back?


Practice, Practice, Practice

Ordinary Egyptians have been under the thumb of some powerful and disdainful leaders since the beginning of human history. They had the waiting game down and were said to be ambivalent about change. On the other hand, the agricultural economy - with its deadening labor and social isolation - has been shifting to an urban one and kids were learning to twitter.

Furthermore, appreciation of democracy was growing. With greater exposure to the world - by way of al Jazeera, the internet, mobile phones and NGOs teaching human rights in a endless array of local programs - they grew less compliant.

Fear of Reprisal

Police colony across street from Cairo University.

Egypt had the surface markings of a democracy, with elections, parliament, laws, courts, but -a dead giveaway -  there was no turnover of the ruling elite. The Muslim Brotherhood, which claimed majority popular support and a committment to peaceful change, was the largest opposition to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP): It was declared illegal.

Police wagons stood and waited.

When elections rolled round, Brotherhood members file das independents; then the police rounded them up and tossed them in jail. Their incarceration stood as an object lesson to those considering expressions of discontent. So does the fact that certain journalists and bloggers were waiting in jail to greet them.

 Alternative Governance:

A massive and lively informal system of governance kept the pressure off the government. Knotted together by powerful customs of family obligation, and managed, to a high degree, by Muslim law and charities, people got married and divorced, stopped fights, negotiated conflicts, gave and got help, ran informal savings and loans clubs, saved babies from burning hospitals (literally) and avoided contact with the formal government.

Poor Education

Public school in Egypt amounted to sitting in a crammed classroom and listening to a teacher recite. Education conscious parents routinely hired tutors to educate their children after hours and rural parents avoided sending their kids to school at all. Critical thinking didn't exist.

This is not likely to change quickly, putting a serious drag on the development of a healthy democracy.

Brain Drain

The young and educated are typically a source of revolutionary energy. And students in Egypt  raised ruckuses within campus walls. But once graduated, the majority couldn't  find jobs. Before the revolution they would sneer, "What's Egypt ever done for me," and talked about how to get out. 

Some, we have since learned, did not abandon hope. To the contrary, they set out on a disciplined path to revolution.

Foreign Aid

At least one commentator,  Edward Walker, Former US Ambassador to Egypt, suggests that US economic aid to Egypt of $815 million has bought the stability to the ruling power."They use the money to support antiquated programs and to resist reforms."  He might have mentioned that more than half of US support went to the military, which Mubarak - a product of the air force - wanted to prosper.

No Earthly Vision

The Egyptians ' appreciation of the afterlife started in the time of the Pharoahs. Since then, the content of their otherworldly visions have changed with the varieties of paganism, Christianity and Islam that have passed through the country, but the focus of the everyday man and woman has remained on the hereafter. Perhaps the emphasis would decline if the here and now had offered a bit more to work with, but until recently, Egyptians took comfort in their idea of a luminous next world.

Updated September 2011

Note: on January 27,2011, the third day of protests in Egypt, John Leyn of BBC news commented:

"..Egyptians will tell you that this country needs a dream, a vision. They had a dream under President Nasser, they had a dream under President Sadat, they had a dream under the pharaohs.

In the 30-year rule of President Mubarak, there has been no dream - it's been mundane, it's been about numbers, and even on those numbers, many will say they haven't delivered on simple things like education, sanitation, and so forth. So people are really seeing a government and a country in decline."

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